Chinese economy

Chinese economy
[转载Transhipment] 2008/12/12 22:44 转载

英文

The accident waiting to happen has happened. China, having helped propel global growth by tooling up and churning out cheap goods for much of the past decade, is crumpling. Official data released on Wednesday removes any doubt. Foreigners are investing and buying less: November foreign direct investment fell by a third from a year earlier while exports fell 2.2 per cent, the first year-on-year decline since February 2002. Deflation is even a possibility, with annual producer price inflation plunging to 2 per cent in November, less than one-third the October reading.

China held out longer than most; much of the developed world is already in recession, after all, and a number of developing countries are teetering on the brink. Now that the brakes are coming on in China, however, a ripple effect is inevitable as demand for oil, iron ore and all the other commodities required to industrialise the country shrinks. Australia is an early casualty. Within 24 hours of central bank chief Glenn Stevens flagging the China risk, Aussie miner Rio Tinto unveiled plans to slash 14,000 jobs.

For China itself the big fears, in addition to perennial worries about unemployment, are capital flight and deflation. The FDI and export numbers allude to the former. Data are magnified on the upturn by funds trying to evade capital controls: sneaking in an inflated FDI cheque, or over-invoicing for exports, allowed investors to punt on an appreciating renminbi. Now that bet has lost some of its lustre those “piggy-backing” funds are disappearing. Falling prices, meantime, are dismissed by bulls as “good” deflation; cheaper pork frees up more money for discretionary spending.

But persistent over-capacity sets the stage for a gloomier prognosis: bargain-priced goods, squeezed profit margins and more unemployment. Both fears come home to roost with the central bank, which has to stimulate demand without undermining the currency. Beijing has few means of reviving exports, but a decent amount of ammunition to blow on boosting domestic demand: it can afford to pump prime, order banks to lend and curtail capital outflows. Now that the accident has happened, speedy recovery hinges on urgent treatment.

中文

中国也挺不住了？

人们害怕的事故终于发生了。近10年来，中国一直在提高制造能力，大量生产廉价商品，从而帮助推动全球增长，但现在中国正陷入困境。周三发布的官方数据扫除了任何疑点。外国人减少了在华投资，还减少了从中国的进口：11月份外商直接投资同比下跌三分之一，而出口同比减少2.2%，这是2002年2月以来首次同比减少。连通缩都成了一种可能性，因为11月份的年度生产者价格通胀猛跌至2%，不到10月份数据的三分之一。

中国比多数国家都坚持了更长时间；毕竟，相当大部分的发达世界已经在衰退状态中，而许多发展中国家正在悬崖边上挣扎。不过，既然现在中国也开始“刹车”，随着中国工业化所需的石油、铁矿石以及其它所有大宗商品的需求收缩，涟漪效应是不可避免的。澳大利亚是较早的受害者。澳大利亚央行行长格兰·斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)就中国风险发出警告不到24小时后，该国矿业巨擘力拓(Rio Tinto)就宣布将裁员1.4万人。

对中国本身来说，除了对失业的长期忧虑外，最大的担心在于资本逃离和通缩。外商直接投资和出口数据都说明发生了资本逃离。在繁荣时期，这些数据由于一些资金企图逃避资本管制而被“放大”：悄悄带进一张夸大金额的外商直接投资支票，或者对出口开具夸大金额的商业发票，使投资者能够押注人民币不断升值。如今，这种押注已部分失色，搭便车流入的资金也随之消失。与此同时，乐观人士对价格下跌不以为意，认为这是“好的”通缩：猪肉价格便宜了，消费者就有更多钱用于任意消费。

但是，产能持续过剩将带来更阴暗的前景：价格减到不能再减的商品、受挤压的盈利空间和更多失业。上述两大担心都让中国央行伤脑筋，央行必须在不损及人民币汇率的情况下刺激需求。北京没有什么手段能够重振出口，但还是拥有可观的实力可投入提振国内需求：它有足够实力大动干戈一番，下令银行放贷，并限制资本流出。既然事故已经发生，要快速复苏，就要采取紧急对策。